Super Bowl LV Picks & Predictions – Chiefs vs Bucs

February 6, 2021
Super Bowl LV Picks

One of the most unprecedented seasons in NFL history culminates on Sunday, February 7 when the reigning champions Kansas City Chiefs and Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers lock horns in the Super Bowl 2021. Who will win the Vincent Lombardi trophy this year? Chiefs or Bucs? Read our Super Bowl LV picks, find the best odds, lines, prop bets, free bets, and legal US Sportsbooks where to place your bets!

When is the Super Bowl LV?

The reigning champion Chiefs are currently slight favorites in Super Bowl LV, with William Hill Sportsbook have Kansas City as 3-point favorites ahead of Feb. 7’s championship.

  • Teams: Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Date & Time: Sunday February 7th, 2020 at 3:30pm PST (CBS)
  • Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, Florida
  • Line: Kansas City -3.5, over/under 56.5

Since the Super Bowl will be played in Tampa Bay, the Bucs have already made history by becoming the first team in the league to host the Super Bowl at their home stadium

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Odds & Spreads

Moneyline: KC: (–167) l TB: (+145)

Spread: KC: -3 (-115) l TB: +3 (-106)

Total: 56 Over: (-110) l  56 Under: (-106)

How Chiefs and Bucs made it to the Big Game

The Kansas City Chiefs have cruised through the season to return to the grandest stage, posting a solid 14-2 record, with Patrick Mahomes returning to the MVP race to help his team lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Chiefs beat 22-17 the Cleveland Browns in the NFL Divisional Round before outclassing the Buffalo Bills to the tune of 38-24 in the AFC Championship Game.

In terms of strengths, the Chiefs haven’t skipped a beat. Offensively they led the league in passing yards and ranked top ten in points scored, while perhaps most importantly, they finished with the third-highest third-down conversion rate in the league.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished the regular season with a 11-5 record, and managed to earn the first Wild Card seed in the NFC. After edging Washington in the wild-card round and then riding a big defensive showing over the Saints in New Orleans, the Bucs outdid Aaron Rodgers 31-26 in Green Bay to claim the NFC title.

Defense has been a key factor in both Tampa Bay’s wins against the New Orleans Saints and the Packers, shutting down the running game in both matches, crucially intercepting Drew Brees three times and sacking Aaron Rodgers five times.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs should win the Super Bowl LV

Patrick Mahomes, who is currenly -110 to be named Super Bowl MVP for the second straight year – has put together another stellar campaign in his third year as a starter.

When the 25-year-old quarterback starts, the Chiefs have won 25 of their past 26 games, including the AFC playoffs and Super Bowl 54 and this season’s victory over the Bucs back in Week 12.

That 27-24 win in Week 12 wasn’t as close as the score indicated as Tampa Bay posted two fourth-quarter TDs to close the final gap. In that game Mahomes was in scintillating form and managed an incredible 462 yards through the air, along with three touchdowns, all thrown to Tyreek Hill.

The Chiefs have other two of the best NFL players in tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Anyway, both Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are set to be out, leaving two pretty gaping holes at either end of the offensive line. This will force Mike Remmers, who has played zero snaps at left tackle since 2016, into a new spot with just two weeks to prepare for the big game.

Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should win the Super Bowl LV

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers know must play a near-perfect game to stop the near-perfect Chiefs QB from winning his second consecutive ring. Anyway, after that loss to Kansas City in Week 12, the Buccaneers came out of their Week 13 bye looking like a new team. Over the next four weeks, Tampa Bay was 4-0 and averaged 37 points a game.

Tom Brady is looking for his seventh Super Bowl win in his tenth appearance in the sport’s biggest game but – crucially – his first outside New England, after he left the Patriots to head to Tampa last year.

The Bucs offense will look different if Antonio Brown is cleared to play; Thursday he was a full participant in practice, but the worry is he again tweaks a muscle and is stopped.

Key Trends

Kansas City Chiefs

  • The Kansas City Chiefs are 13-2 this season following a previous win
  • Mahomes & co. are 0-2 this season ATS following a bye
  • The Chiefs are 7-0 this season as the away favorite

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 10-3 this season following a previous win
  • The Buccaneers are 2-0 ATS this season as the home underdog
  • The Total has gone Over in 8 of the Bucs’ 13 games following a previous win
  • The Total has gone Over in two of Tampa Bay’s three playoff games this season

Our Super Bowl Picks & Predictions

Super Bowl LV Moneyline & Point Spread Picks

The Buccaneers rushed only 13 times in Week 12, but they gained 75 yards for a hearty 5.8 yards per carry against a weak Chiefs run defense. The Chiefs held the ball for almost 37 minutes in Week 12, giving them a near 14-minute advantage over the Buccaneers. The Bucs have been the NFL’s best team over the course of their seven-game winning streak and Tom Brady proved to everyone that ‘Playoff Brady’ is alive and well up in Green Bay. So this time it could be different..

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Super Bowl LV Totals Picks

This year, the points total has been set at a healthy 56.5 and it has dropped a point since then. Interestingly enough, the total was also 56 points the first time these teams met, yet they combined for just 51 points. Both of these offenses have the potential to put up points in a hurry but we expect a tough and close game.

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Super Bowl LV 1st Quarter Winner Picks

The Chiefs have fallen behind by at least 9 points in four of their last five playoff games — including last year’s Super Bowl – so a bet on the Bucs to be ahead after the first quarter could be a smart move.

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Total Mahomes’ Passing Yards

Mahomes has topped 330 yards in just seven of his 17 games this season and has gone under that total in four straight. That’s why we are backing Patrick Mahomes total passing yards Under 327.5 at -115.

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Travis Kelce’s Receiving Yards

Travis Kelce set a record for receiving yards by a tight end this season (1,416), and would probably have topped 1,500 had Kansas City not rested its starters in Week 17.

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Super Bowl MVP

In seven of the last ten years, the MVP of the game has been the winning team’s quarterback, so, considering the higher odds, Tom Brady to be named Super Bowl MVP is worth a bet.

Author Bogdan