2020 Kentucky Derby Picks: Winner, Superfecta, Odds & Trends

Gambler Saloon
August 31, 2020
kentucky derby picks

The 2020 Kentucky Derby, often referred to as the “most exciting two minutes in sports”, will take place on Saturday, September 5, at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Due to the global pandemic this year’s Derby was postponed from its normal spot in May and rescheduled for September. The Grade 1 event will be run at a distance of 1-1/4 miles with a purse of $3 million. Who will win? Here you can find our Kentucky Derby picks, expert tips on the race, Superfecta, lines, betting trends and much more!

This will be the most unusual Kentucky Derby, scheduled on a date other than the first Saturday in May for the first time ever. It will be also the first time ever that no spectators or fans will be allowed to attend the Derby or Oaks. In a normal year the Kentucky Derby would attract 150,000 spectators.

The release of the morning line Kentucky Derby odds the Wednesday before the race is a highly anticipated event. The release coincides with the Post Position Draw, an hour-long ceremony to determines starting positions.

By the way, bettors can already wager to win on the 2020 Kentucky Derby and get fixed odds at selected sportsbooks.

And now we’ll take a closer look at this year’s Derby and try to determine which horse is likely to prevail and share our free Kentucky Derby picks.

Kentucky Derby Betting Preview

Three strong contenders such as Nadal, Charlatan and Maxfield were all been ruled out of the Kentucky Derby due to ankle injuries (with Nadal forced to retire).

As a result, Tiz the Law, ridden by Manny Franco, is the odds-on favorite having won the Holy Bull (G3), Florida Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1) and Travers (G1) this season. In the Belmont Stakes he out-ran Dr Post and Max Player, running the 1 1/8-mile course in a time of 1:46.53.

Honor A.P. is next on the Kentucky Derby 2020 odds board. The three-year-old Colt recently came away with a big victory at the Santa Anita Derby on June 6. He came back less than 2 months later and ran poorly when finishing 2nd to Thousand Words in the Shared Belief Stakes.

Trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Kentucky Derby five times already, has two horses in the race: Authentic and Thousand Words.

Authentic won the TVG Haskell Stakes (G1) but was far to be impressive. His 1:50.45 time was the slowest for a winner since 2013, and despite a big lead entering the final turn, Authentic allowed NY Traffic to close the gap.

Thousand Words started the career winning three straight races before losing to Authentic and Honor A.P. in the San Felipe. He got his revenge over Honor A.P. on 1st August.

Art Collector won only one of his five races in 2019. This season, like Tiz The Law, he has won all the four races he contested this year, including a success in the Blue Grass (G2) followed with a win in the Ellis Park Derby in which he led from gate to wire.

Dr Post, trained by two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher, made his Derby trip using a runner-up campaign in the Belmont and a third in the Haskell. Prior to that, his first race as a 3 year old was a maiden breaking score at Gulfstream Park. He then ran a big race in the Unbridled Stakes at Gulfstream Park which propelled him to the Belmont Stakes.

Max Player ran respectable thirds in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and Travers (G1) while never looking like he could win either race. Strength is his stamina; weakness is lack of speed and acceleration.

Looking for a long-shot?

Major Fed finished second to Shared Sense in the Indiana Derby in July to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Prior to that, he recorded a disappointing 10th-place finish in the Matt Winn Stakes meaning that the horse is rapidly improving.

King Guillermo has just 2 wins in the career so far, but did win the Tampa Bay Derby, by 4 lengths over Sole Volante. He also had a very respectable showing in the Arkansas Derby when finishing 2nd to Nadal.

Kentucky Derby Picks

Find below our recommended bets on the 2020 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Feel free to copy our free Kentucky Derby picks and leave a comment at the bottom of this page should you bash the bookies!


Tiz The Law


Art Collector

To Show

King Guillermo

To Show

Major Fed

Kentucky Derby Superfecta Tips

The superfecta, given its long and potentially profitable odds, is one of the more popular bets made in horse racing. To win a Superfecta, you must correctly pick the horses that finish in the top-4 positions, in the right order.

Last year’s Superfecta was Country House (65-1), Code of Honor (14-1), Tacitus (5-1) and Improbable (9/2), and paid out $51,400.10 for each $1 wagered!

Our suggested superfecta for the 2020 Kentucky Derby is:


Tiz The Law (8/5),
Art Collector (5/1),
King guillermo (20/1),
Major Fed (50/1)

How To Bet On The Kentucky Derby

Are you looking for a betting guide on how to bet on the Kentucky Derby this year? This article contains all that you need to know! From “What is the Kentucky Derby” to “Kentucky Derby Picks” on it, from the “Kentucky Derby Main Markets” to “Where to bet” on it…

The biggest bookies will have the race front and center on their US Betting apps and site closer to the race where you’ll be able to back the winner or place a Trifecta/Superfecta bet on the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Odds & Lines

  • Tiz the Law 8-5
  • Honor A. P. 9-2
  • Art Collector 5-1
  • Authentic 12-1
  • Caracaro 20-1
  • King Guillermo 20-1
  • Thousand Words 20-1
  • Dr. Post 20-1
  • Enforceable 30-1
  • Max Player 30-1
  • Money Moves 30-1
  • Ny Traffic 30-1
  • Sole Volante 30-1
  • Attachment Rate 50-1
  • Finnick the Fierce 50-1
  • Major Fed 50-1
  • Necker Island 50-1
  • Rushie 50-1
  • Shirl’s Speight 50-1
  • Storm the Court 50-1
  • Winning Impression 50-1

Kentucky Derby Post Position

The most favorable post positions are generally believed to be 5 through 16. Post positions 14 and 15 have the advantage of being at the end of the main 14 horse gate and the start of the 6-stall auxiliary gate, giving these two horses a little bit extra room to break.

The 2020 Kentucky Derby post positions will be announced on Wednesday 2nd September.

Where To Bet On The Kentucky Derby

Now that you have read our Kentucky Derby picks, you are problably wondering where to bet on this race.

All the best online bookmakers will offer odds on the Kentucky Derby for months in the build up to the big race and it’s well worth shopping around to find the best odds.

A number of bookmakers will have free bets available for the big race and potentially even have different promotions each and every day throughout the festival.

Head over to our Bookmakers Page to find the very finest bookies around as well as a whole range of free bets to place on horse racing betting.

Author Gambler Saloon