Bills vs Patriots Picks & Predictions (NFL Week 16)

Peter N
December 25, 2020
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Odds Picks and Predictions

The Buffalo Bills will battle the New England Patriots in this AFC East Division showdown. The Bills have won four games in a row and are just practicing for the playoffs. The Patriots have lost two games in a row and they will try to get closer to finishing .500. Who will win this game? Read our Bills vs Patriots picks, find the best odds, lines, free bets, and legal US Sportsbooks where to place your bets!

When is Buffalo vs New England?

Date: Monday, Dec. 28

Location: Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, Massachusetts

Time: 8:15 PM EST

Coverage: ESPN, ABC

Bills vs Patriots Odds & Spreads

Moneyline: BUF: (-295) I NE: (+265)

Spread: BUF: -7 (-101) I NE: +7 (-105)

Total: Over: 46 (-103) I Under: 46.5 (-110)

Betting Preview

Buffalo is first in the AFC East Division, 11-3 overall, and 9-5 ATS. The Bills are second in the power rankings, Josh Allen continues to throw multiple touchdown passes per game, and the defense is on the rise. They have an above average offense and they rank second in passing yards. Buffalo scores around 29 points per game. The defense is average, but they are getting better. They rank in the middle of the pack in the key areas. The Bills give up around 24 points per game. The last four wins have been by double digits and the defense has given up 20 points or less in three of the games.

Last week, they beat the Denver Broncos 48-19. It was a close game at halftime and then the Bills took over in the second half. Allen went 28 of 40, for 359 yards, and 2 touchdowns. All around great numbers from the running game and receiving core. They averaged almost ten yards per play and were efficient on all of their drives.

New England is third in the AFC East Division, 6-8 overall, and 6-8 ATS. The Patriots are 21st in the power rankings and quarterback Cam Newton, and the defense have been struggling. They have a below average offense and the second worst rushing team in the league. The Pats score around 21 points per game. The defense is average, and they are good at stopping passes. New England gives up around 22 points per game. The last two games were double digit losses and the offense has not found the endzone.

Last week, they lost to the Miami Dolphins 22-12. It was a low scoring first half and the Dolphins were able to find the endzone in the fourth quarter. Newton went 17 of 27, for 209 yards, and 0 touchdowns. The only standout player for the Pats was wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, who had seven catches, for a total of 111 yards. The defense stayed strong for a while, but just too many incomplete passes for the offense, and no consistency.

Head to Head

This will be the 122nd all-time meeting between the Bills and Patriots. New England leads the series with a 76-44-1 record. In the last ten games, the Patriots are 8-2 and 6-3-1 ATS. The over/under is 4-6. The Pats score around 23 points per game and the Bills are at 14. New England has the advantage in all the main areas. The Patriots are 7-1 in the last eight games against the Bills.

Our Bills vs Patriots Picks & Predictions

It’s weird that the predicted score for this game is a two-point win for the Bills. Buffalo has been rolling offensively and even though their division title is wrapped up, they will try and treat this game like a tune up for the playoffs. This is a meaningful game for New England because they can still try and go towards a .500 season.

Sure, the Patriots haven’t looked that great offensively, but they might be able to come up with a plan to slow down Allen and look good in primetime. This can easily be a trap time of game. However, the Patriots have some players hurt in the secondary and that means they will have a tough time guarding some of the elite Buffalo receivers. Buffalo wins 24-13 and covers the spread.

Author Peter N