The Monte Carlo Method

Gambler Saloon
January 11, 2023

We all associate Monte Carlo with betting, it’s home to one of the most lavish casinos on the planet. It’s also the name of one of the most complex, yet effective betting systems on the planet, the Monte Carlo method.

This method is a real hit with experienced punters and it’s not difficult to see why given the results many of them get. It is an advancement of fixed odds sports betting where you look at historical sports data almost like a betting analyst as you attempt to discover your expected profit. The goal is to secure a net profit and you can do so with this method providing historical sports data.

Any way a punter can try and get the edge over a bookmaker is well worth taking and this really is no different. Sports betting is challenging, and often sports bettors are surprised by operators’ unique ability to make a correct prediction in terms of margins of victory by way of point spreads. This has led to players looking to place a value bet or search for ways they can benefit from betting odds and make the uncertain outcomes of most sports matches work in their favor.

Consequently, strategies have emerged since sports wagering spread across the United States. People could use statistical evidence, look at win probability, probability distribution and more as they look to undergo a betting education. Some aspiring sports bettors may even believe with the right strategy and information they can one day become a professional sports bettor. One of the things to break out that ties in with strategies and new developments is the Monte Carlo simulation sports betting model.

But what is the Monte Carlo method and how does it work?

What Is Monte Carlo Simulation?

The most common assumption associated with any form of gambling is that luck plays the biggest role. You bet on team A to win the Super Bowl or an English Premier League match and then hope you will be successful. No matter the match importance, you cross your fingers and hope for the best as some will go for you and some will go against you. However, that is assumption is now somewhat outdated.

Of course, luck does a play a part in all matches as sport by its very nature is unpredictable, but betting isn’t all about good fortune. By using statistical forecasting or empirical evidence, you can use mathematics to try and improve your chances of winning.

Monte Carlo Simulation as it’s also known is a system used by punters to help forecast the outcome of a wager. This method was invented by Stanislaw Ulam, a famous scientist and, working with John Von Neumann, they formed a tandem and created the Monte Carlo method as we know it today. Working as a model of chance, the system uses a computer algorithm to run simulations in order to obtain the probability of a wager.

This is done by converting uncertainties into probability by simulating a model numerous times to get a firm conclusion of probability.

What MCS does is input the variables of a model into probability distributions and then randomly selects from them, essentially working in a similar way to Wisdom of the Crowd where the more one guesses, the closer to the result you’ll be. If your bet size is huge, using this method may make you feel more comfortable and confident. You can put through some simple simulations or more complex simulations depending on your needs.

For Example:
You may wish to use the Monte Carlo method to determine whether the Patriots will win in a game versus the Giants.

You can add various parameters to the system, all of which could influence the result of the game. For example, weather, head-to-head form, injuries, the starting Quarterback, could all have an impact.

You can then allow the function and system to run its course and spit out a more accurate probability of the Patriots winning.

Commonly Used Monte Carlo Simulation Models

There are a number of different models that are used in Monte Carlo simulations all using varying degrees of mathematics.

While there are many, when it comes to betting there are generally three main types. These are:

Deterministic Model

This is the simplest of models and best suited to sports where parameters are well known prior to the game and the result is effectively an outcome that’s easy to calculate.

For example, that could be a match result bet in soccer where the outcome is either a home win, away win or a draw.

Stochastic Model

A stochastic model is a little more complex and uses randomly generated numbers to determine the probability of outcomes.

This method takes into account unknown elements and rather than being one simple function contains a number of variables and is more suited to more detailed and complicated wagers such as the number of points a team may earn in a season.

What’s also worth noting is you won’t be given one defining answer, but a number of them in which you must then choose the correct outcome yourself based upon the trends within the result.

Dynamic Model

A dynamic model is similar to the previous model expect you will update the model as the parameters change.

For example, if you were to use the Monte Carlo Method to bet on LA Lakers to win 46 games in the regular season, you would update the dynamic model after every game to help the simulations become more accurate as the season goes on.

This is perhaps the most accurate system, but odds naturally might shorten on a Bookmakers website the longer you wait to place your bet.

Is The Monte Carlo Method Worthwhile?

All three systems are useful for helping uncover probabilities. However, they are simply statistics and should be used to back up or give you some mathematical perspective rather than dictate how you place your bets.

Sport is always subjective and full of variables. It only takes one player to get sent off in soccer for the entire complexity of the game to change.

That’s why it’s worth using as an aid. What it will do is give you the best ballpark figure on a wide range of bets and if you have the opportunity to use it, it’s well worth doing and finding the very best balance of head and heart in your wagers.

Can I Use The Monte Carlo Method On Any Sport?

You can use the Monte Carlo method on any sport with most markets able to fit into one of the models above.

The likes of basketball, football and baseball are among the most popular although ultimately it’s a system that sees outcomes as figures rather than particular markets and betting types.

You can use the method across Futures and Prop bets as well as simple match result bets on a game being played later in the day, while it doesn’t matter what parameters you need to add in, you’ll be able to add that functionality.

When To Use Monte Carlo Simulation

As you can probably tell, the Monte Carlo method is rather complex so it’ll take some time to get the hang of.

Practice certainly makes perfect and it’s worth placing your first few bets that are influenced by the models with a free bet.

Once you’re comfortable with Monte Carlo Simulation though, you certainly should use it to your advantage. It’s ideal for forecasting probabilities and no matter what the market, if you’ve got the time you should use it.

Author Gambler Saloon